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Apollo Finds AI Is Slowing Wage Growth Before Reducing Employment
Physical AI-infra, funded by the frontier.
MarketStack, The Room.
An observation, not a conclusion.
The sentiment paradox.
Author positioning, inferred from MarketStack data.
Which one drives?
It's not Michael Burry.
A very special situation.
For paying subscribers.
MarketStack.
Enter OUSD.
Not investment advice.
Is compute ownership a moat, a treadmill, or neither?
Performance is a relativity phenomenon.
June was quite the month.
The rented moat.
Silence is a source of great strength.
This really is (not) Bloomberg for Substack.
Lines of delusion.
The emperor's new hawk.
Apollo Finds AI Is Slowing Wage Growth Before Reducing Employment
Transparencia chavales
Also, OCC and FDIC take yet another crack at updating CRA rules; Fincen chief to join Citigroup
Friday, July 31st, 2026
GoldFix PM
And you don't have to own a single share to get hurt
Top 3 Candidates + 1 Wildcard
Korean margin debt hit a record ₩38.6 trillion in June. On the Bank of Korea's own heat gauge, that was the 27.6th percentile. Seoul broke anyway.
We can now officially call it.
The Type of Read that Grants the Reader not only Understanding but Air Superiority
From Greg M
Writing options as a method to fund your Crisis Investing Portfolio expansion
Crude markets eased amidst a tentative pause in US-Iran fighting before tightening anew as strikes reignited and spread to critical Saudi oil facilities and as far west as Egypt.
If you are currently not a subscriber, below are updates via screenshots of our service’s two portfolios.
A daily companion newsletter for SPX/ES Traders offering accurate daily levels, an actionable trade plan, a comprehensive process, and insight into the art and science of trading from the perspective of a professional tr
Doug Casey's Take [ep.#456]
Mining.com
From Greg M
Good afternoon…
Time to bank on the regionals?
an in-depth look at regulatory arbitrage conducted by banks
Revisiting our July 2025 grid idea with a fresh thesis and updated scenarios.
What’s especially rich about blaming shorts is that leverage itself creates vastly more selling pressure than shorts ever could.
The SPY is trying to get over that 50 day today but look where it is rejecting at this moment.
WATCH THE TODD “BUBBA” HORWITZ ARTICLE HERE!
LEOPOLD ASCHENBRENNER PLEASE CALL YOUR OFFICE
Dr. Andrew Tunks explains how Meteoric Resources discovered one of the world's largest ionic clay Rare Earth deposits, and plans to feed Western demand.
market vibes
In 1Q’26 earnings coverage of Amazon, I mentioned AWS would likely grow by ~35% in 2Q’26.
Welcome to another edition of TSOH Weekly Roundup.
The AI trade is a Rorschach test these days - but it is pretty simple. Can Anthropic and OpenAI meet their commitments?
The 9% 2L notes trade around 95 for a ~11% YTW. Lift-truck bookings are improving, but the earnings and FCF have not followed yet.
VWAP, Defensive Positioning, and Bessent's Latest Statement
A recording from Garrett Baldwin's live video
Increasing my highest-conviction weightings and simplifying the composite
Weekly post:
Si el mundo se va a la mierda, hay que protegerse de alguna manera y el búnker es el único lugar seguro.
From Greg M
Good morning.
Ag Tax University is a company that Penny Wade Smith and I own that provides CPE to tax professionals such as CPAs, but we also provide guidance for farmers who wish to learn and know more about income taxes, farm progra
Boy, did things escalate quickly.
In July 2020, the real yield on Fed Funds loans was NEGATIVE 6%. And that was after 40 years of declining yields. The Fed was giving away money...and paying people to take it.
Jassy makes his case for an even larger AI buildout
The consensus narrative among economists and Wall Street analysts has been calling for an imminent recession for the better part of two years, yet the American consumer continues to completely dismantle those predictions
Check out July’s email digest that details all the must-read items shared throughout the month.
Kevin Warsh Wants A Steeper Yield Curve
Chances of Delayed or Canceled Miderms While Low Are Not Zero...Uncertainty Ahead
Sam Altman wants more compute. Two former frontier researchers want a new architecture. Leopold Aschenbrenner's over leveraged his $45 Billion fund and just discovered which clock matters.
While everyone hopes the Situational Awareness washout marks a bottom in the Semi/AI selloff, the macro data released yesterday calls into question the whole growth & profit boom attributed to AI.
Few investors are interested in major upheavals facing global finances. Disinterest in summer is normal, but this is a time of maximum danger to personal wealth.
Read or listen now | Special Report: Britain For Sale, Part 1
On the modern assumption that opponents can’t punch back.
7/31 Plan
Following the MOU announcement in mid-June, we saw a surge in vessels exiting the Strait of Hormuz.
He says yesterday’s Fed decision and presser marked the most significant shift in Federal Reserve strategy in more than two decades.
Significant
Rotation Break
Hey traders-
My first downside target just hit, then we ripped higher. Here's whether I think we bottomed or not...
If this is the hawkish Fed we were promised, imagine what a dovish Fed could look like.
$USO $BNO $GLD $SLV $URA
Also, sources say Senate aide and ex-CFTC commissioner are Democrats' top choices for SEC
(2026-07-30)
If you are looking to join the Discord (separate from the newsletter) please see here: JOIN THE DISCORD Please email help@pharmdcapital.com if there are any technical issues.
How Sustained Outperformance Actually Works..
Here Is What You Need to Know.
Leopold blew up, is it that simple?
Julien Garran | Ed Zitron | Nobody Special
Good afternoon.
For Friday, July 31, 2026
Leo’s fund was up 439% at the end of June. Then it all fell apart.
A full video explanation of the macro regime
If you are currently not a subscriber, below are updates via screenshots of our service’s two portfolios.
A sizable batch of trades, but only two kinds of charts
Thoughts on capitalizing on mispricing opportunities in the oil market
A Crack in the Market's Oil "Logic"
A wild one today!
All test has done great so far
Results
The SPY continues to build under this 50 day now going for its 6th close there, the market did not like what Warsh had to say yesterday.
I lost the trade, found the mechanism, and Jeffrey Gundlach handed me the leg I was missing.
market vibes
2Q’26 wasn’t the quarter that propelled Meta out of the penalty box.
Each time I buy a new position or exit one completely, I will send an email and also update you in subscriber channels.
Consolidando
A recording from Michael Howell and Noelle Acheson's live video
Letter 3 of 3. Positioning Yourself for Credit Deflation and Monetary Inflation
30 July 2026
40x forward, 12% short, and no benefit of the doubt. Can Reddit deliver today?
It’s all part of the great rhythm...the beat that goes on...and on...and on. Everything corrects. Everything regresses to the mean. From ashes to ashes...dust to dust.
Weekly post:
Why people love betting on calamity
Fresh off the Federal Reserve meeting, the guys chat with Luke Gromen, founder of Macro/Thematic Research Firm “Forest For The Trees” for a special Thursday edition of the Friday Night Dirty
Hello, The FOMC flip trade looks to be a winner again.
Meme Tops vs Meme Bottoms
But watch out for the 10% Rule
Very tough shorts
You want to invest in companies that generate a lot of cash.
The latest proposals from City Hall suggest New York is becoming a laboratory for communism in America.
Who gets paid for AI, and who just pays.
If the Fed sits around in wait and see mode on the hikes needed to cool the equity mania and fight persistently above-target inflation, yesterday showed the long end is going to do it for them.
⛰️ Here's the primary silver miner to buy after the latest paper selloff – and our latest Pulse Premium model portfolio included!
Reports suggest that China is helping Iran give the US an extra shove out of the Middle East. A US funding crisis and a collapsing dollar surely follows.
We are witnessing an extraordinary battle between the light and the dark. Books are being beheaded by guillotine so that LLMs can learn faster. Ink is being replaced by light and pixels. This changes the human condition
$MSFT $META $SPX
Oil market participants have been conditioned to think that without escalation, crude can’t go higher.
What are the drivers of equities and how far could they fall if this is the moment?
You know something is fundamentally broken when yields surge and your currency can’t rally.
Reverse engineering the Fed
As usual, FOMC was both a bull and bear trap today.
for Wednesday, July 29th, 2026
Precious metals breathed a sigh of relief after the Fed held rates steady, and the sharp pullback in the dollar and tech stocks may be an emerging bullish catalyst for them.
After keeping a low profile for 6 weeks, Warsh offered us homilies like “the markets have done quite a lot” and “we’re learning to play the ball, not the referee.” The press was a little bizarre, parsing the difference b
Also, Democrats press SEC on Truth Social's Wall Street data feed
Backing frontier labs while Azure hosts their rivals
Broker Statements + Full Course - 1 Trade Per Week Selling Options Sunday Night
If you are looking to join the Discord (separate from the newsletter) please see here: JOIN THE DISCORD Please email help@pharmdcapital.com if there are any technical issues.
For Thursday, July 30, 2026
💵 Here's what the latest U.S central bank policy decision really means for strategic investors (and for silver specifically).
Tamarack, Headwater and Cardinal have earned premium valuations. A remarkably similar producer has not - at least, not yet
Cost of capital is rising as pro-labour theory predicts. Lets see if the other part of the theory holds.
The FOMC decision will land this afternoon, and markets are pricing a hold at 3.50 to 3.75%.
Taking a Big Knife to the Semis
The SPY continues to build under the 50 day with our 5th straight sessions potentially closing below there today.
Joe Mazumdar explains why advanced projects with permits, strong metallurgy and realistic capital requirements could attract the next wave of acquisitions.
$MSFT $META $SPX
Pro Tier: July 2026 Doom Zoom
La mina que nadie quería
Banyan Gold, Mundoro Capital, Aldebaran Resources, Orogen Royalties, Bravo Mining, New Found Gold, and Meteoric Resources.
Powerful, and Full of Traps
SharonAI ($SHAZ): Nvidia’s Sovereign AI Partner for Australia
Also: Serta Simmons outs its losers & Lazard Inc. ($LAZ) reports earnings. Trajector Holdings LLC files.
Distribution company flips the framework: sells assets and then files chapter 11 to liquidate
On July 23, 2026, Trajector Holdings LLC and 21 affiliates filed chapter 11 bankruptcy cases in the Middle District of Florida (Judge Brown).
104 forecasters said hold, a week before oil fell thirteen percent. The market is charging one in three anyway. The missiles came back at 5:45 last night. On the record before the Fed prints at two.
July 2026 Results: Everyone is All-In and nobody has any cash left.
Hi, I realize that some of you may be new to Substack.
The Original CFM
Citadel has bought the remnants of the Situational Awareness fund blowup and people are asking if they also caused it.
From +40% YTD to +30% YTD in just a few sessions. Some holdings sold off hard. We had over 15% cash for exactly this kind of market, and yesterday we started putting it to work.
⚠️AVISO LEGAL Y DE RIESGO (#Ad): Este contenido tiene fines estrictamente educativos y refleja exclusivamente mi opinión personal.
⚠️AVISO LEGAL Y DE RIESGO (#Ad): Este contenido tiene fines estrictamente educativos y refleja exclusivamente mi opinión personal.
Pusgada rezultātu secinājumi
Also The New Leaders, Key Levels and Setups I’m Watching Next Week
Updates on Daily Swing Strategy, QuickTopSwing, Monthly Momentum Basket, $ES_F, Bitcoin, USOIL and Gold — Weekly & Daily.
The S&P finished August on a strong note, closing the month flat, but above all moving averages, above an inclining 5 day moving average, above all key VWAPs and in positive gamma.
Week #31 Recap · No Swing Trades · Just Technical Setups with 70% Win Rate
Recap of July (+14.61%), New Basket of August
Part 3 of 3 — The Map & The Next Hundred Years
By: Jon Costello
In Part 2 of 5 of our Midyear State of Data Centers and the AI Bubble - we discuss the public equities side of the trade, the financing wobbles, are data centers shale on steroids?, and much more...
Summer Sale Closing
Join Us!
Educational Guide and Updated Levels for August and Next Week - Tech and Semiconductors still have work to do.
本期聚焦 CRCL ARM IONQ
FOMC holds at 3.5-3.75% on a 9-3 vote, Warsh’s first dissents after a unanimous June.
i’m not there yet. Not so fast, a-holes.
Good Evening,
A leading US natural gas producer is quietly becoming great.
The Next New Thing is - Things.
Macro Cycle Allocations
===== =====
===== =====
A powerful rebound has carried Alphabet toward an important resistance level, and I am sticking to the plan that brought me into the trade.
Succinct Summation of the Week’s Events:
Cheap seats (freemium) summary: You really don’t want more for a mere $50 per month?
Issue #50 | 1978: A Deep Dive into the Capital Cities 10-K
6 Questions with FFBB CEO Miller, IBKR understands deposit tech, Slide's (SLDE) slippery slope, Skyline's (SLBK) marshmallow test.
Month-End Harvest
A September hike is back on the table
Oncor delivers 32 gigawatts of power to North Texas today.
Our first revenue prediction for Q3 🔥
Stephen Schwarzman would have you believe so
MOAR people should read the novels of the late Iain Banks, that is what I say. 17 and a quarter years ago during the Golden Age of Weblogging. Some readings and thought on fiction, reader...
En spontanresa med poängen från vårt kreditkort
5 carteras optimizadas en costes (Ahorro a Agresiva) con radiografía completa de sus fondos y revisión continua que puedes tener en tu broker
58 deep dives. One definitive guide. See what's changed, what's improving, and where Europe's best hidden gem opportunities may lie.
The setup for defense of the yen was perfect.
Goodbye July! A Month to Remember
New York Sues Kalshi, CFTC Market-Making Rules, and IG Buys Underdog
ULTIMATE TRADE · ARBITRAGE DU 31/07/2026
Pensiju reformas ietekme
Tomorrow evening, bonfires will burn on hilltops from Geneva to Graubünden. Switzerland turns 735. No empire, no oil, no ocean, not even a common language. And yet: CHF 1,000 became CH 1.74 million.
Executive Summary – Danny (CapitalCosm) Interviews Ed Steer
In this Midweek Macro Note - we discuss the probabilities of a 'dead cat bounce' versus a 'dead cat dragon', look at the JPY puck save, the BoJ decision, the latest on energy, and much more.
Executive Summary (29:59)
===== =====
Have you heard of Leopold Aschenbrenner?
Keep More Without Sacrifice
Discusses background, types of businesses he likes to invest in, and pitches two Canadian small caps.
The Bounce Is Here. The Confirmation Is Not.
Uber reportedly blew through its entire AI budget in a few months and still can’t say what it got for it Jack @ 0:24. Tony Xu doesn’t have that problem. DoorDash’s co-founder and CEO won’t spend on AI without a customer
The tactical bounce was expected, now the SPX must hold levels
This week, Warsh affirmed PCE inflation as the Fed's target, then put that yardstick on the chopping block.
A scalable digital banking platform at an attractive inflection point
More than 360k margin accounts were forced into liquidation in Korea, per Citi.
Quinta and my beef had multiple straws so I wasn’t sure which was the final one.
A Macro Symmetrical Triangle
The subheadline: "Kicking off an honest series about writers, thinkers, creators, & AI—how a tech journalist works with AI..." Taylor Lorenz has 20 AI tools & fortifies the hill "human-written"...
Executive Summary – Danny (CapitalCosm) Interview with Rob Kientz
Thursday July 30, 2026 Locking in gains and generating income on shares
From October 20, 2024. This is a core dump of my brain on the subject at the time. For me at least, Nate Silver's gambit to draw direct connections between formal games of chance and large-stakes...
Private credit inside life insurers, and why a thirty-year promise doesn't make a seven-year loan any safer - Duh!
The U.S. had three AI advantages over China. They’re gone after this week.
Ahead of the BoJ meeting tonight where no policy change is expected, the yen beginning at 9:30am est today has had a big rally of 2.3% (a bit off the highs of the move).
The United States has been on the precipice of a “nuclear renaissance” for four decades. And I can tell you right now, with confidence, that it will never happen. Why?
Ten use cases, one confession, and what CRE should copy.
My 3 reads on a widening war how it is outgrowing its map, why Iran has learned to bend oil, inflation and the Fed and the opportunity it is quietly creating.
Financial Survival Network
NY Path Opens for Enforcement, CFTC Loses in Wisconsin, Robinhood PM Revenue Tops Crypto
On grignote le retard !
Pensiju reformas efekts
We are cashed up and waiting for the next big market rotation which is unfolding right now and should provide generational buying opportunities in the coming days...
7/30 Plan → Only $15/month
That Have Nothing To Do With Working Harder
Navigating Fed hawkishness, soaring bond yields, and tech volatility with key technical levels and safe-haven setups
No Hikes Today, But Monetary Policy Pressure Persists
The Capitulation Trade Is Getting Closer - Here's How To Play It.
WTF is “Price Stability”? I Want Price Discovery.
The Macro Case for XDC Is Strong
Wednesday 7/29/2026 Managing the following shares
The thing you were actually working for, and why so few people realise they now have it
Five overlooked, rule breaking, European small caps with asymmetric upside, clear catalysts, defined risks, and the potential to become tomorrow's market leaders.
Most investors spend our time staring at price charts, especially me.
